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Poisson model rates Alaves at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Real Sociedad make the trip to Estadio Mendizorrotza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:15 UTC.

Form

Alaves (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Alaves have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.

Real Sociedad have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Real Sociedad away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Sociedad are 0.60 PPG clear of Alaves in recent La Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Real Sociedad in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Alaves winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 48% versus Real Sociedad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 36% | Real Sociedad 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.20 xG and Real Sociedad 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.876 / defence 0.928 | Real Sociedad attack 1.064 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.123. Data: 52 Alaves games / 52 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 38% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 33%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Real Sociedad 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Alaves 60% | Real Sociedad 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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