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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Osasuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 30, as Alaves and Osasuna drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.15 xG and Osasuna 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 40% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 30%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.09 PPG, Osasuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights