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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.91 xG and Osasuna 0.78 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.61 / defence 0.75 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 29%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 33%, Osasuna 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.16 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights