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Poisson model rates Alaves at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Alaves host Osasuna at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Osasuna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.50 PPG, Osasuna 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Osasuna, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Alaves.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Osasuna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Alaves in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Osasuna in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 41% versus Osasuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 33% | Osasuna 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.91 xG and Osasuna 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.613 / defence 0.747 | Osasuna attack 0.894 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.161. Alaves's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alaves's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Alaves games / 75 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 29%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Osasuna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 10% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.

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