Alaves 0-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Osasuna at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 2W 1D 4L from 7 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.00 PPG, Osasuna 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Alaves, 2 for Osasuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Alaves in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 29% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 14% | Osasuna 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.46 xG and Osasuna 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.945 / defence 1.271 | Osasuna attack 1.181 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.212. Data: 7 Alaves games / 45 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 46%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Osasuna 2.17. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Alaves 33% | Osasuna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Alaves 1.46 / Osasuna 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.945 / def 1.271 | Osasuna attack 1.181 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Osasuna xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Osasuna kick off?
Alaves vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves 0 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Alaves vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Osasuna part of?
Alaves vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 30% chance of winning, Osasuna a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Alaves and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
Record (2 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.94) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.16
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.28
1.82
Osasuna xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
5%
20.32
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Alaves and 1.82 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 4L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 1.00 PPG, Osasuna on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osasuna's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Osasuna travel well.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Osasuna away?
Alaves's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 2.00 PPG; Osasuna away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Osasuna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Alaves
3
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 0, Osasuna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Osasuna 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Alaves) and 67% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna in 33%; Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 67% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alaves's recent games and 67% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Osasuna tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.46 xG and Osasuna 1.82 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Osasuna attack 1.18 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 30% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 46%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 14%, Osasuna 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.00 PPG, Osasuna 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.