Atletico Madrid 3-2 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atletico Madrid face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano plays host to Atletico Madrid versus Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Madrid have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Atletico Madrid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atletico Madrid's home record at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano: 10W 0D 0L from 10 La Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Atletico Madrid's favour (2.10 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atletico Madrid lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 5–1 with Atletico Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Atletico Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 50% versus Cadiz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Madrid 50% | Cadiz 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.21 xG and Cadiz 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.385 / defence 0.846 | Cadiz attack 0.736 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.214. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Atletico Madrid games / 45 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 70% | Draw 19% | Cadiz 11%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Cadiz 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Madrid 70% | Cadiz 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 70% | Draw 19% | Cadiz 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 48% | xG Atletico Madrid 2.21 / Cadiz 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.385 / def 0.846 | Cadiz attack 0.736 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz?
Atletico Madrid 3 - 2 Cadiz.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 70% chance of winning, Cadiz a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Cadiz?
Record (4 meetings): Atletico Madrid 3W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Cadiz in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.74x) against Atletico Madrid's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.21
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.97
0.76
Cadiz xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
84.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.76 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico Madrid come into this having played 44 games, going 27W 9D 8L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.16 PPG from 44 outings (12W 15D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Atletico Madrid's home form reads 15W 3D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.82 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 27W 9D 8L in their last 44 games (2.05 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Cadiz away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.29 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cadiz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 5-1 on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Madrid have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 4, Cadiz have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Cadiz 2-0 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Cadiz?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 62%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Atletico Madrid) and 29% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 29% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Cadiz tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Cadiz 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Cadiz 3-2 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.21 xG and Cadiz 0.76 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cadiz outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.39 / defence 0.85 against Cadiz attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 70% | Draw 19% | Cadiz 11%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 50%, Cadiz 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.