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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Mallorca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.62 xG and Mallorca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 25%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 43%, Mallorca 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.07 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights