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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Girona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 25, as Alaves and Girona drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.11 xG and Girona 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Girona outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 35% | Draw 32% | Girona 33%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 39%, Girona 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.10 PPG, Girona 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights