Alaves 0-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Getafe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio Mendizorrotza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alaves's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Getafe have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Alaves against 0.60 for Getafe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Getafe and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2025, ended Alaves 1–1 Getafe — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Getafe 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 40% | Getafe 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.35 xG and Getafe 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.874 / defence 0.936 | Getafe attack 0.776 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.110. Getafe's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Alaves's last 60 games and Getafe's last 60.
Result probabilities: Alaves 48% | Draw 31% | Getafe 21%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.08 | Draw 3.22 | Getafe 4.81. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 70% (last 10 home games) | Getafe 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 48% | Draw 31% | Getafe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Alaves 1.35 / Getafe 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.874 / def 0.936 | Getafe attack 0.776 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Alaves (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Getafe xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Getafe FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Getafe kick off?
Alaves vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves 0 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Alaves vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Getafe part of?
Alaves vs Getafe is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 48% chance of winning, Getafe a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alaves and Getafe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Alaves vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.87) and Getafe's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.78x) against Alaves's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 60 games and Getafe's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
48%
2.08
31%
3.22
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.16
0.81
Getafe xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Alaves and 0.81 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 16D 27L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Getafe's form line: 17W 14D 29L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Alaves against 1.08 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.40 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 10W 4D 16L from their last 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.83 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Getafe
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Getafe in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Getafe have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Getafe away?
Alaves's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.40 PPG; Getafe away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Alaves and Getafe, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alaves won Alaves 3-0 Getafe on 15 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Getafe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 2, Getafe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Getafe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 47%, Getafe 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Alaves) and 43% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Getafe in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Getafe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alaves's recent matches and 37% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Getafe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Alaves's recent games and 43% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Getafe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Alaves's recent matches and 70% of Getafe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.35 xG and Getafe 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Getafe outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Getafe attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 48% | Draw 31% | Getafe 21%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Getafe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Getafe 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Getafe's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.12 PPG, Getafe 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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