Alaves 0-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Getafe at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alaves's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Getafe have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Getafe are 0.60 PPG clear of Alaves over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Alaves, 2 for Getafe and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Alaves 0–2 Getafe — a Getafe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 45% versus Getafe 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 38% | Getafe 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.86 xG and Getafe 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.762 / defence 0.997 | Getafe attack 1.003 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.124. Alaves's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Getafe bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Alaves's projected output down. Data: built from Alaves's last 60 games and Getafe's last 60.
Result probabilities: Alaves 28% | Draw 31% | Getafe 42%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.60 | Draw 3.26 | Getafe 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Getafe's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 50% (last 10 home games) | Getafe 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 28% | Draw 31% | Getafe 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Alaves 0.86 / Getafe 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.762 / def 0.997 | Getafe attack 1.003 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Getafe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Getafe xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Getafe FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Getafe kick off?
Alaves vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves 0 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Alaves vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Getafe part of?
Alaves vs Getafe is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 28% chance of winning, Getafe a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Alaves and Getafe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Alaves vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.76) and Getafe's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (1.00x) against Alaves's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 60 games and Getafe's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
28%
3.60
31%
3.26
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.98
1.12
Getafe xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Alaves and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Alaves and 1.12 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 16D 27L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Getafe's form line: 15W 22D 23L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Alaves against 1.12 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 8D 9L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 4W 10D 15L from their last 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.98 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Getafe
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Getafe in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Getafe have gone 15W 22D 23L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Getafe away?
Alaves's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.52 PPG; Getafe away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Alaves and Getafe, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alaves won Alaves 3-0 Getafe on 15 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Getafe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 2, Getafe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Getafe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 41%, Getafe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Alaves) and 45% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 28% of games; Getafe in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Getafe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Alaves's recent matches and 48% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Getafe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Alaves's recent games and 45% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Getafe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Alaves's recent matches and 79% of Getafe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.86 xG and Getafe 1.12 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against Getafe attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 28% | Draw 31% | Getafe 42%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Getafe 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Getafe's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.12 PPG, Getafe 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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