Getafe 0-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Getafe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Coliseum plays host to Getafe versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe at Estadio Coliseum this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Getafe, 1.20 for Sevilla — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Sevilla hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Sevilla winning.
It is worth noting that Sevilla have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 42% versus Sevilla 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 32% | Sevilla 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.24 xG and Sevilla 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.729 / defence 0.791 | Sevilla attack 1.173 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.169. Getafe's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sevilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Getafe's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Getafe games / 59 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 40% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 32%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Sevilla 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Getafe 40% | Sevilla 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 40% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Getafe 1.24 / Sevilla 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.729 / def 0.791 | Sevilla attack 1.173 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Getafe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sevilla xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Sevilla kick off?
Getafe vs Sevilla kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Getafe 0 - 0 Sevilla.
Where is Getafe vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Sevilla part of?
Getafe vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 40% chance of winning, Sevilla a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Getafe and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Sevilla?
Record (7 meetings): Getafe 2W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 5W.
What form are Getafe and Sevilla in?
Getafe (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Sevilla (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Getafe's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (1.17x) against Getafe's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.56
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.32
1.08
Sevilla xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Getafe and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Getafe and 1.08 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 15W 21D 23L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 17W 17D 25L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Getafe against 1.15 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 6W 9D 14L from 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.22 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 15W 21D 23L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Sevilla away?
Getafe's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.48 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 0-3 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Getafe
1
Draws
6
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 3, Sevilla have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Getafe 0-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 38%, Sevilla 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Getafe and 48% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 34% of games; Sevilla in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Getafe's recent matches and 55% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Getafe's recent games and 48% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Sevilla tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Getafe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 22, as Getafe and Sevilla drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.24 xG and Sevilla 1.08 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Getafe fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sevilla landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.73 / defence 0.79 against Sevilla attack 1.17 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 40% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 32%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 32%, Sevilla 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.12 PPG, Sevilla 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.