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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Osasuna travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mallorca's home record at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Mallorca) versus 0.90 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mallorca, 3 for Osasuna and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Mallorca trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Osasuna trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 45% versus Osasuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Osasuna 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.04 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.772 / defence 1.015 | Osasuna attack 0.784 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.136. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Mallorca games / 60 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Osasuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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