Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Pohang Steelers.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Pohang Steelers have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pohang Steelers's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.20 (Pohang Steelers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Pohang Steelers and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–1 Pohang Steelers — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Pohang Steelers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Pohang Steelers 45%). Note also that Pohang Steelers surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.313 / defence 1.323 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.037 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.294. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.313 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating of 1.323 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pohang Steelers's projected output up. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 43 games and Pohang Steelers's last 43.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 37%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.61 | Draw 4.10 | Pohang Steelers 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Pohang Steelers's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.4 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 69% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches — though recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Pohang Steelers's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Pohang Steelers 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 / Pohang Steelers 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.313 / def 1.323 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.037 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Pohang Steelers xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 06:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.31x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 43 games and Pohang Steelers's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.61
24%
4.10
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.58
1.77
Pohang Steelers xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.77 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 32W 20D 24L from 76 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 27L across 76 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 20W 8D 9L from their last 37 home games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 14W 7D 16L across their last 37 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.24 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Pohang Steelers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%, Pohang Steelers 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 46% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 60% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 46% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 68% of Pohang Steelers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.77 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.32 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Pohang Steelers 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.