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Last-gasp drama as Ulsan Hyundai FC snatch the points — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors found a late winner to edge Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. It was 0-1 at the break, with 3 further goals after it. Scorers: Kim Jin-Gyu (30') · Lee Seung-Woo (60') · Kim Ye-geon (79') · Yago Cariello (89'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 68% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 63% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

🏆 Player of the Match