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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 10:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 1.40 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Team Stats

Across 16 matches this season, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 7W 5D 4L. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 0.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 1-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 16 games (12%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game.

In-Play Profile

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.157 / defence 1.112 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.837 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.231. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 49 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% BTTS from recent games.

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