Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 1.40 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 4 for Jeonbuk Motors and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.157 / defence 1.112 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.837 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.231. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 49 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.157 / def 1.112 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.837 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (8 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 4W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.21
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.15 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 9L across 54 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ulsan Hyundai FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 13W 10D 3L across 26 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.59 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 30W 15D 9L in their last 54 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 27% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 54%; Jeonbuk Motors in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 27% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.