Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bucheon FC 1995 at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Bucheon FC 1995 to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gimcheon Stadium this season.
Bucheon FC 1995 — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bucheon FC 1995 away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.00 PPG, Bucheon FC 1995 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 0 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bucheon FC 1995 trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 67% versus Bucheon FC 1995 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% | Bucheon FC 1995 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.888 / defence 1.200 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.789 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.231. Data: 49 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 16 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 30% | Bucheon FC 1995 36%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Bucheon FC 1995 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bucheon FC 1995 as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bucheon FC 1995 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Bucheon FC 1995 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 30% | Bucheon FC 1995 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 / Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.888 / def 1.200 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.789 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Bucheon FC 1995 (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 33% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bucheon FC 1995 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 0 | Bucheon FC 1995 0W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.89) and Bucheon FC 1995's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bucheon FC 1995's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bucheon FC 1995 Win
33%
2.99
30%
3.31
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.27
1.17
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.17 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 9D 6L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bucheon FC 1995's form line: 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Bucheon FC 1995 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.00 PPG, Bucheon FC 1995 on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (0W 5D 4L). That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bucheon FC 1995 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 0.94 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Bucheon FC 1995
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 9D 6L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Bucheon FC 1995 away?
Bucheon FC 1995's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 0.56 PPG; Bucheon FC 1995 away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1
Draws
0
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 2 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 67%, Bucheon FC 1995 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 44% (Bucheon FC 1995).
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 in 33%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Bucheon FC 1995 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Bucheon FC 1995?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 33% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 44% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 finished level at 1-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 30% | Bucheon FC 1995 36%, with Bucheon FC 1995 to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Bucheon FC 1995 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.00 PPG, Bucheon FC 1995 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.