📋

Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees FC Anyang travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026, 10:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Incheon United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 3W 0D 5L from 8 K League 1 appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.

Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Incheon United at 1.40 PPG versus FC Anyang's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Trading Patterns

Incheon United in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Incheon United 50% and FC Anyang 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 56% | FC Anyang 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.02 xG and FC Anyang 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.979 / defence 1.023 | FC Anyang attack 1.104 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.279. Data: 16 Incheon United games / 49 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Incheon United 25% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 46%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | FC Anyang 2.17. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Anyang are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | FC Anyang 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.