Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours Ulsan Hyundai FC — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jeju United FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1.40 for Jeju United FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Jeju United FC managing 2 and 0 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2026, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–0 Jeju United FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Ulsan Hyundai FC an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Jeju United FC 45%). Note also that Jeju United FC surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG and Jeju United FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.212 / defence 1.180 | Jeju United FC attack 0.896 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.258. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 46 games and Jeju United FC's last 46.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.42 | Draw 3.34 | Jeju United FC 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 14 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 / Jeju United FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.212 / def 1.180 | Jeju United FC attack 0.896 / def 0.906 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 14) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 29% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.90x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 46 games and Jeju United FC's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
29%
3.42
30%
3.34
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.33 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 20D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 76 outings (26W 12D 38L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.18 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 21W 8D 9L across their last 38 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 38 away games (9W 7D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.01 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 7, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Jeju United FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Jeju United FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 55% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG and Jeju United FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 41%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.