Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.40 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 4 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Season Statistics
Gangwon FC's full-season record stands at 13W 13D 12L from 38 games. Their scoring output is 1.0 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 15 clean sheets this season (9 at home, 6 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 38 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's cumulative K League 1 record this campaign: 11W 11D 16L from 38 matches. Their scoring output is 1.1 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 11 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 38 games (5%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.
Gangwon FC lead on clean sheets this season (15 vs 11). Penalty activity: Gangwon FC 3/3 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC 4/4 this season.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.185 / defence 0.813 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.062 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.232. Data: 47 Gangwon FC games / 47 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC • Managers: Gangwon FC (Chung Kyung-Ho) | Ulsan Hyundai FC (Shin Tae-Yong) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Gangwon FC 3W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W • Goals trend: 2.78 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Gangwon FC 10 – 15 Ulsan Hyundai FC • H2H markets: BTTS 56% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Gangwon FC 33% / Draw 22% / Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 40% / draw 30% / away 30% • Goals: H2H average 2.78/game (56% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.33 (41% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 56%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W • Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L • Gangwon FC home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Ulsan Hyundai FC away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Gangwon FC 1.40 PPG vs Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Gangwon FC): Poisson xG of 1.26 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Ulsan Hyundai FC): Poisson xG of 1.06 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.33 (41% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 48% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Gangwon FC 1.26 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.185 / def 0.813 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.062 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 40% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
• Record (9 meetings): Gangwon FC 3W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W • Goals trend: 2.78 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Gangwon FC 10 – 15 Ulsan Hyundai FC • H2H markets: BTTS 56% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Gangwon FC 33% / Draw 22% / Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 40% / draw 30% / away 30% • Goals: H2H average 2.78/game (56% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.33 (41% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 56%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
• Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W • Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L • Gangwon FC home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Ulsan Hyundai FC away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Gangwon FC 1.40 PPG vs Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Gangwon FC): Poisson xG of 1.26 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Ulsan Hyundai FC): Poisson xG of 1.06 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.33 (41% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 48% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture