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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Jeju United FC host FC Anyang at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

FC Anyang — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Anyang's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.60 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 4 for FC Anyang and 0 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Anyang winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Season Statistics

Jeju United FC's full-season record stands at 12W 9D 19L from 40 games. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.3 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 11 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 40 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.22 reds per game.

The visitors have accumulated 14W 7D 17L from their 38 K League 1 appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 38 games (16%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Jeju United FC lead on clean sheets this season (11 vs 6). Penalty activity: Jeju United FC 3/3 vs FC Anyang 2/2 this season.

Trading Patterns

Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (38 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 53% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 42% | FC Anyang 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.87 xG and FC Anyang 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.873 / defence 0.999 | FC Anyang attack 1.087 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.243. Data: 47 Jeju United FC games / 47 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 23% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 47%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | FC Anyang 2.13. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 50% | FC Anyang 60%.

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