Jeonbuk Motors 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeonbuk Motors face Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1 (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 05:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 1 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Jeonbuk Motors 0–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeonbuk Motors surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 61% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.932 / defence 1.017 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.250 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.013. Ulsan Hyundai FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.250, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 36 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.65 | Draw 3.55 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 60% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Jeonbuk Motors 36 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.932 / def 1.017 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.250 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.93) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 36 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.55
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.29 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 76 games, going 37W 19D 20L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 76 outings (45W 17D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.71 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 18W 12D 8L across their last 38 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.82 points per game from their last 38 away games (20W 9D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 games (1.71 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.74 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 2-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 38%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.71 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.