Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Daejeon Citizen have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daejeon Citizen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2025, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–2 Daejeon Citizen — a Daejeon Citizen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Daejeon Citizen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Daejeon Citizen 50%). Note also that Daejeon Citizen surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / defence 1.161 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.042 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.171. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.357 — their 1.35 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 42 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 42.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.93 | Draw 3.47 | Daejeon Citizen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Daejeon Citizen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 / Daejeon Citizen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / def 1.161 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.042 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Daejeon Citizen xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 08:30 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 4 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 34% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 42 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.47
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.42
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.42 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 32W 20D 24L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 30W 23D 23L from 76 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 38 home games (21W 8D 9L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 12W 13D 13L from their last 38 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Daejeon Citizen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 26 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
5
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 August 2026: Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Daejeon Citizen 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 60% (Daejeon Citizen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 66% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 60% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Daejeon Citizen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.42 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.36 / defence 1.16 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Daejeon Citizen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.