Jeju United FC 1-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 42%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Daejeon Citizen travel to Jeju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeju United FC in K League 1 (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 June 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jeju United FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 4 games, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 3W 0D 1L — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daejeon Citizen — 1.15 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.25 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeju United FC 100% and Daejeon Citizen 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jeju United FC 100% | Daejeon Citizen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.84 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.070 / defence 1.082 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.220 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.274. Daejeon Citizen's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jeju United FC's projected output up. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack rating of 1.220, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 51 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 18.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 35%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.41 | Draw 4.26 | Daejeon Citizen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Daejeon Citizen's last 4 games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Daejeon Citizen 50% (last 4 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 June 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Jeju United FC 1.84 / Daejeon Citizen 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.070 / def 1.082 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.220 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Daejeon Citizen xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 24 June 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 19) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 42% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 51 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
42%
2.41
23%
4.26
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
3.53
1.68
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.68 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-W in the last five.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 1L across 4 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daejeon Citizen by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jeju United FC heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Daejeon Citizen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Jeju United FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 5, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Jeju United FC 3-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jeju United FC at 100%, Daejeon Citizen at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Jeju United FC and 75% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Jeju United FC's games and 50% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jeju United FC's matches and 75% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 75% of Daejeon Citizen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 1-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.84 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.68 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.22 / defence 1.32, drawn from 51/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 35%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 100%, Daejeon Citizen 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Daejeon Citizen managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.