Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Bucheon FC 1995 in K League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bucheon FC 1995's record over their last 2 games: 2W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bucheon FC 1995 are 2.00 PPG clear of Ulsan Hyundai FC over their recent games (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2026, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Bucheon FC 1995 — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.226 / defence 1.224 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.709 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.321. Bucheon FC 1995's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bucheon FC 1995's projected output up. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 45 games and Bucheon FC 1995's last 12.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.65 | Draw 3.18 | Bucheon FC 1995 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 / Bucheon FC 1995 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.226 / def 1.224 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.709 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 06:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.23) and Bucheon FC 1995's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bucheon FC 1995's attack (0.71x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 45 games and Bucheon FC 1995's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.18
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.15
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.15 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five.
Bucheon FC 1995's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W.
Put side by side, Bucheon FC 1995 are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Bucheon FC 1995 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995, the earliest from March 2026. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bucheon FC 1995 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
0
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Bucheon FC 1995 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bucheon FC 1995 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.22 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 0%, Bucheon FC 1995 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.