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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.

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Full Analysis

Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC Anyang have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Jeonbuk Motors's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for FC Anyang against 1.60 for Jeonbuk Motors. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jeonbuk Motors in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the last 5 meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to FC Anyang's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.

It is worth noting that Jeonbuk Motors have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 14W 7D 17L from their 38 K League 1 appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 38 games (16%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Jeonbuk Motors have played 38 games this season, recording 23W 10D 5L. Their scoring output is 1.7 per match with 0.8 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 6 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 15 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 10 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 38 games (21%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

Jeonbuk Motors have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.80 per game versus 1.20 for the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors lead on clean sheets this season (15 vs 6). Penalty activity: FC Anyang 2/2 vs Jeonbuk Motors 6/6 this season.

Trading

FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Jeonbuk Motors 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.72 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.919 / defence 0.904 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.851 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.304. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 FC Anyang games / 45 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 24% | Draw 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — FC Anyang's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. This conflicts with form data: FC Anyang 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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