Suwon City FC 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Suwon City FC face Jeju United FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Suwon City FC welcome Jeju United FC to Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 5). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 05:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 0.60 PPG versus Jeju United FC's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Suwon City FC's games and 60% of Jeju United FC's (from Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Suwon City FC, 2 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Suwon City FC 0–3 Jeju United FC — a Jeju United FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Jeju United FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 61% | Jeju United FC 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.42 xG and Jeju United FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.285 | Jeju United FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.131. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jeju United FC's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 66 games and Jeju United FC's last 66.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 39% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.57 | Draw 3.75 | Jeju United FC 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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