Busan I Park 2-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Busan I Park at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Busan Asiad Main Stadium to face Busan I Park in K League 1, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Busan I Park 1.36 xG and Suwon City FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Busan I Park attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 0.994 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.131. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Busan I Park's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Busan I Park games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Busan I Park 38% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Busan I Park 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon City FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Busan I Park as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Busan I Park if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Busan Asiad Main Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Busan I Park 38% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Busan I Park 1.36 / Suwon City FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Busan I Park attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 0.994 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Busan I Park (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Busan I Park xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Suwon City FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Busan Asiad Main Stadium.
What was the final score in Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC?
Busan I Park 2 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Busan Asiad Main Stadium.
What competition is Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC part of?
Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Busan I Park a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Busan I Park the favourite.
Will both teams score in Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Busan I Park and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Busan I Park and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Busan I Park and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Suwon City FC away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Busan I Park's attack at 0.85x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.99x) against Busan I Park's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 0/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Busan I Park Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.68
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Busan I Park xG
Total xG
2.65
1.29
Suwon City FC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Busan I Park and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Busan I Park and 1.29 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Busan I Park
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Busan I Park
0
Draws
1
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Busan I Park and Suwon City FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Busan I Park have won 1, Suwon City FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Busan I Park and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2023, when Suwon City FC 5-2 Busan I Park.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Busan I Park home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Busan I Park edge out Suwon City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Busan I Park beat Suwon City FC 2-1 at Busan Asiad Main Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Busan I Park 1.36 xG and Suwon City FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Busan I Park attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Busan I Park 38% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 35%, with Busan I Park to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.