Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Suwon Bluewings welcome Gangwon FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gangwon FC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon Bluewings 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 2 for Gangwon FC and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (75 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gangwon FC trading profile (75 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 53% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 48% | Gangwon FC 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.88 xG and Gangwon FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.788 / defence 0.975 | Gangwon FC attack 0.849 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.131. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Suwon Bluewings games / 66 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 32% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Gangwon FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Gangwon FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 32% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.88 / Gangwon FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.788 / def 0.975 | Gangwon FC attack 0.849 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gangwon FC xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 32% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Record (9 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 3W | Draws 4 | Gangwon FC 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.79) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
32%
3.17
34%
2.95
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.82
0.94
Gangwon FC xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.94 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 75 games, going 19W 20D 36L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.09 PPG from 75 outings (20W 22D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.03 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 9W 11D 18L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 38 outings (9W 11D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 19W 20D 36L in their last 75 games (1.03 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 20W 22D 33L in their last 75 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.00 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
5
Draws
2
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 47%, Gangwon FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Suwon Bluewings) and 40% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 40% of games; Gangwon FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 47% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 40% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Suwon Bluewings's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, as Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.88 xG and Gangwon FC 0.94 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against Gangwon FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 32% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 35%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 48%, Gangwon FC 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (75 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (75 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.03 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.