Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 60%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daegu FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Daegu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Daegu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 2.07 xG and Daegu FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.281 / defence 1.119 | Daegu FC attack 0.823 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.181. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Suwon City FC games / 41 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 60% | Draw 21% | Daegu FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Daegu FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Suwon City FC (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 60% | Draw 21% | Daegu FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Suwon City FC 2.07 / Daegu FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.281 / def 1.119 | Daegu FC attack 0.823 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Daegu FC xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 60% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.28) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.81
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.16
1.09
Daegu FC xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
2%
41.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.09 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 27W 18D 31L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 26D 25L across 76 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.30 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 18W 6D 14L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 9W 14D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Suwon City FC at 71%, Daegu FC at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Suwon City FC and 53% for Daegu FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 66% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Suwon City FC's matches and 53% of Daegu FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC and Daegu FC finished level at 1-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.07 xG and Daegu FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.12 against Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 60% | Draw 21% | Daegu FC 19%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Daegu FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, Daegu FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.