Gwangju FC 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gwangju FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gwangju FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Gwangju FC are significantly better at Gwangju Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Jeju United FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jeju United FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gwangju FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jeju United FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Gwangju FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 53% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 45% | Jeju United FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.33 xG and Jeju United FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.974 / defence 0.846 | Jeju United FC attack 1.029 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.172. Data: 8 Gwangju FC games / 41 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 43% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 70% | Jeju United FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 43% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Gwangju FC 1.33 / Jeju United FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.974 / def 0.846 | Jeju United FC attack 1.029 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 43% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.03x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 8/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.49
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.02 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 8D 20L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. Gwangju FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Jeju United FC's form line: 14W 10D 14L from 38 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.37 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 14W 10D 14L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeju United FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 6, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 53%, Jeju United FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gwangju FC) and 63% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Gwangju FC's games and 63% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 63% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Gwangju FC 0-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.33 xG and Jeju United FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Jeju United FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 43% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 28%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 45%, Jeju United FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.