Incheon United 2-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Incheon United welcome Suwon City FC to Sungui Arena Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Incheon United are significantly better at Sungui Arena Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Incheon United at 1.00 PPG versus Suwon City FC's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Incheon United have won 0, Suwon City FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.37 xG and Suwon City FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.873 / defence 0.902 | Suwon City FC attack 0.681 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.174. Data: 40 Incheon United games / 40 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon City FC 5.26. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Incheon United at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 50% | Suwon City FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Incheon United 1.37 / Suwon City FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.873 / def 0.902 | Suwon City FC attack 0.681 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Suwon City FC xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Incheon United 2 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 51% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Incheon United 0W | Draws 3 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.87x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.32
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.09
0.72
Suwon City FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.72 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Incheon United come into this having played 76 games, going 25W 26D 25L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.30 PPG from 76 outings (27W 18D 31L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.33 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Incheon United's home form reads 13W 13D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.03 points per game from 37 outings (9W 11D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Incheon United are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Suwon City FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.41 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Suwon City FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Incheon United
5
Draws
4
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 1, Suwon City FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 38%, Suwon City FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Incheon United) and 51% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 40% of games; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Incheon United's recent matches and 51% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Incheon United's recent games and 51% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Incheon United and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United and Suwon City FC finished level at 2-2 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.37 xG and Suwon City FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Suwon City FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.33 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.