Asan Mugunghwa 4-3 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Cheonan Baekseok Stadium to face Asan Mugunghwa in K League 1, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 November 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Daegu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asan Mugunghwa 1.09 xG and Daegu FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Daegu FC attack 1.016 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 0 Asan Mugunghwa games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asan Mugunghwa 28% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Asan Mugunghwa 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Daegu FC 2.22. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Cheonan Baekseok Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asan Mugunghwa 28% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Asan Mugunghwa 1.09 / Daegu FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Daegu FC attack 1.016 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Asan Mugunghwa xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Daegu FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC kick off?
Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 28 November 2024 at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium.
What was the final score in Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Asan Mugunghwa 4 - 3 Daegu FC.
Where is Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium.
What competition is Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC part of?
Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Asan Mugunghwa a 28% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Daegu FC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
What do the betting odds say about Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.