Daegu FC 3-1 Asan Mugunghwa – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 54%, yet in-form Asan Mugunghwa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Asan Mugunghwa make the trip to DGB Daegu Bank Park to face Daegu FC in K League 1, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 05:00 UTC.

Form

Daegu FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Asan Mugunghwa's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Asan Mugunghwa have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Asan Mugunghwa are 2.00 PPG clear of Daegu FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Daegu FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Asan Mugunghwa in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Daegu FC 0W, Asan Mugunghwa 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2024, ended 3–4 with Asan Mugunghwa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.79 xG and Asan Mugunghwa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.067 / defence 1.028 | Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 0 Asan Mugunghwa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 54% | Draw 23% | Asan Mugunghwa 23%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Asan Mugunghwa 4.35. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Asan Mugunghwa (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 5.1 goals per game.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights