Pohang Steelers 0-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Pohang Steelers take on Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jeju United FC travel to Pohang Steel Yard to take on Pohang Steelers in K League 1 (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jeju United FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.20 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Pohang Steelers, 2 for Jeju United FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Pohang Steelers 1–0 Jeju United FC — a Pohang Steelers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (last 76 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC trading profile (last 76 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 57% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 45% | Jeju United FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.02 xG and Jeju United FC 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.759 / defence 0.764 | Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 0.999. Pohang Steelers's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Pohang Steelers have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Jeju United FC's projected output down. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 39 games and Jeju United FC's last 39.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 37% | Draw 40% | Jeju United FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.72 | Draw 2.47 | Jeju United FC 4.39. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 06:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 37% | Draw 40% | Jeju United FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.02 / Jeju United FC 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.759 / def 0.764 | Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.247 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Jeju United FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 37% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 23% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.76) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 39 games and Jeju United FC's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.72
40%
2.47
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.79
0.77
Jeju United FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.77 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 30W 19D 27L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 76 outings (26W 12D 38L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.43 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 16W 12D 11L across their last 39 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 39 away games (9W 7D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.01 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Jeju United FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.54 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Pohang Steelers 1-1 Jeju United FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 54%, Jeju United FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pohang Steelers) and 49% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 54% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 49% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 54% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Pohang Steelers 0-2 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.02 xG and Jeju United FC 0.77 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.76 / defence 0.76 against Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 37% | Draw 40% | Jeju United FC 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 45%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.43 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.