Jeju United FC 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Jeju United FC take on Bucheon FC 1995.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeju United FC versus Bucheon FC 1995 in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeju United FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bucheon FC 1995's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bucheon FC 1995 are 1.60 PPG clear of Jeju United FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (3.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.95 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.772 / defence 1.092 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.951 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.128. Jeju United FC's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Jeju United FC games / 5 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 26% | Draw 38% | Bucheon FC 1995 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Bucheon FC 1995 2.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 26% | Draw 38% | Bucheon FC 1995 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Jeju United FC 0.95 / Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.772 / def 1.092 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.951 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Jeju United FC 1 - 0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 26% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 37% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.77) and Bucheon FC 1995's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bucheon FC 1995's attack (0.95x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 38/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.89
38%
2.67
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.13
1.17
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.55
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.0 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.17 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeju United FC come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Jeju United FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bucheon FC 1995 sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Jeju United FC against 3.00 for Bucheon FC 1995. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Bucheon FC 1995's attacking output running into Jeju United FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Bucheon FC 1995 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Jeju United FC or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
0
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 2 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 0-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Bucheon FC 1995?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Bucheon FC 1995 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 1-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.95 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bucheon FC 1995 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 26% | Draw 38% | Bucheon FC 1995 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 0%, Bucheon FC 1995 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 3.00 PPG, Bucheon FC 1995 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.