Pohang Steelers 1-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pohang Steelers face Gwangju FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers host Gwangju FC at Pohang Steel Yard in K League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Pohang Steelers — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pohang Steelers at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gwangju FC stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.20 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Gwangju FC 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Pohang Steelers 1–0 Gwangju FC — a Pohang Steelers win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 57% versus Gwangju FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 45% | Gwangju FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.28 xG and Gwangju FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.673 / defence 0.799 | Gwangju FC attack 0.708 / defence 1.632. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.176. Pohang Steelers's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Gwangju FC's defence rating of 1.632 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pohang Steelers's projected output up. Gwangju FC's attack rating of 0.708 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Pohang Steelers have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling Gwangju FC's projected output down. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 41 games and Gwangju FC's last 41.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 49% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.05 | Draw 2.89 | Gwangju FC 6.00. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 49% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.28 / Gwangju FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.673 / def 0.799 | Gwangju FC attack 0.708 / def 1.632 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Gwangju FC xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 49% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 17% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 41 games and Gwangju FC's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
49%
2.05
35%
2.89
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.95
0.67
Gwangju FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.67 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 30W 19D 27L from 76 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Gwangju FC, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 33L across 76 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.43 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 14W 12D 11L from their last 37 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gwangju FC's away record stands at 12W 7D 18L across their last 37 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Gwangju FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 29W 14D 33L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Gwangju FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.46 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jul 2026, when Pohang Steelers won Gwangju FC 0-3 Pohang Steelers.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 7, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Gwangju FC 1-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 54%, Gwangju FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pohang Steelers) and 38% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 40% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 38% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 57% of Gwangju FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Gwangju FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.28 xG and Gwangju FC 0.67 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.67 / defence 0.80 against Gwangju FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.63, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 49% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 17%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 45%, Gwangju FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.43 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.