Pohang Steelers 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pohang Steelers face Daegu FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Pohang Steelers welcome Daegu FC to Steelyard Stadium in K League 1 (Championship Round - 4). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Daegu FC — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Daegu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.40 PPG, Daegu FC 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Pohang Steelers's games and 60% of Daegu FC's (from Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Pohang Steelers have won 1, Daegu FC 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Pohang Steelers 0–0 Daegu FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 61% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 38% | Daegu FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.45 xG and Daegu FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.174 / defence 0.942 | Daegu FC attack 1.071 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 66 games and Daegu FC's last 66.

Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 44% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.29 | Draw 3.68 | Daegu FC 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 70% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights