Daegu FC 1-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 34%, yet in-form Gwangju FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1 (Championship Round - 3). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Daegu FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Daegu FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Gwangju FC have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Gwangju FC have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

On a straight form reading, Gwangju FC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jul 2023, ended Daegu FC 1–1 Gwangju FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 49% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Daegu FC 37% | Gwangju FC 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.99 xG and Gwangju FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.897 / defence 0.856 | Gwangju FC attack 0.999 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 66 games and Gwangju FC's last 33.

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 34% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.92 | Draw 3.08 | Gwangju FC 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gwangju FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Gwangju FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights