Incheon United 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Incheon United at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Incheon United face Ulsan Hyundai FC.

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Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1 (Championship Round - 4). The match kicks off on Friday 24 November 2023 at 10:30 UK time.

Form

Incheon United (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Incheon United at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Incheon United against 1.60 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Incheon United 0–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).

Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Incheon United surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 61% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.22 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 1.034 / defence 0.926 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.055 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: built from Incheon United's last 66 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 66.

Result probabilities: Incheon United 38% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.62 | Draw 3.41 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Incheon United 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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