Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1 (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Jeonbuk Motors are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 70% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's (from Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Jeonbuk Motors 2–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Jeonbuk Motors win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 55% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeonbuk Motors surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.217 / defence 1.146 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.167 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.128. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 38 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 37.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.21 | Draw 3.15 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 60% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 06:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.217 / def 1.146 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.167 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 31% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.22) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 38 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.15
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.88
1.51
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.51 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 76 games, going 35W 20D 21L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.53 PPG from 76 outings (32W 20D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.64 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 19W 11D 8L across their last 38 home games, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 38 away games (11W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 20D 21L in their last 76 games (1.64 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.79 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 68%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 34% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 34% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.22 / defence 1.15 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.64 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.