Incheon United 2-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Incheon United welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Sungui Arena Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Incheon United haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 1W 2D 7L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sungui Arena Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Incheon United) versus 1.50 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Incheon United have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Incheon United in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 42% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.91 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.855 / defence 1.432 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.914 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.010. Data: 5 Incheon United games / 38 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 22% | Draw 36% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 4.55 | Draw 2.78 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Incheon United 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 22% | Draw 36% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Incheon United 0.91 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.855 / def 1.432 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.914 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Incheon United 2 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 22% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 42% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Incheon United 2W | Draws 2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.85) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
22%
4.56
36%
2.79
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.24
1.32
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
4.56
22%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
17.10
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.32 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Incheon United's recent record stands at 9W 12D 17L from 38 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. Incheon United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 13L across 38 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Incheon United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Incheon United have managed 3W 5D 10L from 18 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 0.78 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Incheon United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Incheon United
2
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 56%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Incheon United) and 72% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Incheon United's games and 72% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Incheon United's matches and 72% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Incheon United defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.91 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.85 / defence 1.43 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 22% | Draw 36% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Incheon United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 42%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Incheon United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.