Jeju United FC 1-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gwangju FC make the trip to Jeju World Cup Stadium to face Jeju United FC in K League 1 (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time.
Form
Jeju United FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gwangju FC away from home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Gwangju FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus Gwangju FC 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 52% | Gwangju FC 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.97 xG and Gwangju FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.935 / defence 1.035 | Gwangju FC attack 0.956 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.154. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 64 games and Gwangju FC's last 31.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.36 | Draw 3.14 | Gwangju FC 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gwangju FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Gwangju FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 32 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Jeju United FC 0.97 / Gwangju FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.935 / def 1.035 | Gwangju FC attack 0.956 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Gwangju FC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 32) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 30% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.94) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.96x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 64 games and Gwangju FC's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
30%
3.36
32%
3.14
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.12
1.14
Gwangju FC xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.8 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.14 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 8D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.55 PPG from 31 outings (13W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Gwangju FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jeju United FC's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across their last 15 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 15 away games (5W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.35 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Gwangju FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 13W 9D 9L in their last 31 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gwangju FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.20 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
4
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Jeju United FC 1-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 60%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Jeju United FC) and 27% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 33%; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jeju United FC's games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 27% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.97 xG and Gwangju FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Gwangju FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 38%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 52%, Gwangju FC 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.