Jeju United FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Jeju United FC take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jeju United FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.50 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Jul 2025, ended Jeju United FC 1–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 47% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 45% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.808 / defence 0.979 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.825 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.114. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 40 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 40.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 39% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.34. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 8 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 39% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Jeju United FC 0.92 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.808 / def 0.979 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.825 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 08:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 8) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 31% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.81) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 40 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
39%
2.56
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.82
0.90
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.90 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 26W 12D 38L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 36W 16D 24L from 76 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jeju United FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.51 PPG from their last 37 home games (17W 5D 15L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 15W 9D 13L from their last 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 games (1.18 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.51 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
4
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Jeju United FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 40%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jeju United FC) and 60% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.90 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 39% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 45%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.