Bucheon FC 1995 2-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 36%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Bucheon Stadium to face Bucheon FC 1995 in K League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Bucheon FC 1995 (all games): 2W 0D 0L across 2 K League 1 fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Incheon United's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Incheon United haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Incheon United have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Bucheon FC 1995's 3.00 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Incheon United's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 1.02 xG and Incheon United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.785 / defence 1.068 | Incheon United attack 0.981 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.114. Bucheon FC 1995's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 7 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 29% | Draw 36% | Incheon United 36%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Incheon United 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 29% | Draw 36% | Incheon United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 1.02 / Incheon United 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.785 / def 1.068 | Incheon United attack 0.981 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Incheon United xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United?
Bucheon FC 1995 2 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 29% chance of winning, Incheon United a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. Incheon United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bucheon FC 1995's attack at 0.79x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.98x) against Bucheon FC 1995's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
29%
3.50
36%
2.82
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.19
1.17
Incheon United xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.17 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bucheon FC 1995 come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. Incheon United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bucheon FC 1995 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Incheon United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Incheon United's attacking output running into Bucheon FC 1995's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Incheon United in 100%.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
Incheon United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Incheon United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
2
Draws
0
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United?
From 2 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Incheon United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Incheon United 1-1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's games and 100% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's matches and 100% of Incheon United's.
Do Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United tend to score early?
Bucheon FC 1995 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Bucheon FC 1995 and Incheon United drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 1.02 xG and Incheon United 1.17 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Incheon United outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Incheon United attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 29% | Draw 36% | Incheon United 36%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 50%, Incheon United 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bucheon FC 1995 shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.