Incheon United 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Incheon United face Ulsan Hyundai FC.

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Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1 (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time.

Form

Incheon United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Incheon United at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Incheon United against 1.00 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Incheon United edge it 2 wins to 1, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Incheon United 0–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Incheon United 42% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Incheon United surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.21 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.973 / defence 1.393 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.062 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.001. Incheon United's defence rating of 1.393 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output up. Data: built from Incheon United's last 6 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 38.

Result probabilities: Incheon United 27% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.68 | Draw 3.04 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Incheon United's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Incheon United 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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