🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Gwangju FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.40 xG and Suwon City FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Suwon City FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 40% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 34%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 36%, Suwon City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights