Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Daegu FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Daegu FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Daegu FC 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Daegu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% versus Daegu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Daegu FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.16 xG and Daegu FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.940 / defence 0.734 | Daegu FC attack 1.044 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.102. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 39 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Daegu FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.16 / Daegu FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.940 / def 0.734 | Daegu FC attack 1.044 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Daegu FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 43% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Record (7 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.30
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.00
0.84
Daegu FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.84 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 18W 9D 11L from 38 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 15L across 38 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Daegu FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 53% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.16 xG and Daegu FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.73 against Daegu FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 27%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Daegu FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.