FC Seoul 2-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 49%, yet in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Seoul World Cup Stadium plays host to FC Seoul versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time.
Form
FC Seoul (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, FC Seoul have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Seoul are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from FC Seoul's last 10 home games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of FC Seoul's games and 80% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, FC Seoul edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended FC Seoul 1–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 58% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 47% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.41 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.329 / defence 0.717 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.878 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.294. FC Seoul carry an above-average attack rating of 1.329 — their 1.41 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Seoul have a tight defence (rating 0.717), which is pulling Gimcheon Sangmu FC's projected output down. Data: built from FC Seoul's last 43 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 43.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 49% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.03 | Draw 3.26 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.98. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both teams scored in 80% of FC Seoul's last 10 home games and 80% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 away games, but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though recent form (FC Seoul's last 10 home games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Seoul 80% (last 10 home games) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 06:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 49% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG FC Seoul 1.41 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.329 / def 0.717 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.878 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC FAQs
What time does FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 06:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Seoul 2 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 49% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.33) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.88x) against FC Seoul's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from FC Seoul's last 43 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.26
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.22
0.81
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
20.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.81 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 28W 23D 25L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 36W 16D 24L from 76 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.63 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 37 home games (16W 9D 12L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 15W 9D 13L from their last 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul (Home) vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Seoul
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Form FAQs
What form are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 28W 23D 25L in their last 76 games (1.41 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.54 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won Gimcheon Sangmu FC 6-2 FC Seoul on 17 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Seoul have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: FC Seoul 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 65%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Seoul) and 60% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Seoul's games and 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Seoul's matches and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat FC Seoul 2-3 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.41 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.33 / defence 0.72 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 49% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 20%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 47%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.41 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.