Gangwon FC 1-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gangwon FC host Incheon United at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gangwon FC's home record at Chuncheon Songam Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Chuncheon Songam Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Incheon United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Gangwon FC) versus 0.80 (Incheon United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Incheon United trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 49% versus Incheon United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Incheon United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.101 / defence 1.153 | Incheon United attack 0.774 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.264. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Gangwon FC games / 33 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 33%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Incheon United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gangwon FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 40% | Incheon United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Gangwon FC 1.26 / Incheon United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.101 / def 1.153 | Incheon United attack 0.774 / def 1.226 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Incheon United xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Incheon United?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Incheon United part of?
Gangwon FC vs Incheon United is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 40% chance of winning, Incheon United a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gangwon FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Incheon United in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.10) and Incheon United's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.62
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Incheon United xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.13 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gangwon FC's recent record stands at 9W 11D 15L from 35 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Incheon United, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 15L across 35 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.09 PPG, Incheon United on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gangwon FC have managed 6W 7D 4L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Incheon United's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.03 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Incheon United away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Incheon United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jun 2022, when Incheon United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Incheon United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Incheon United 0-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Incheon United?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 41%, Incheon United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gangwon FC) and 59% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Incheon United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 53% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 59% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC and Incheon United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Incheon United finished level at 1-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Incheon United attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 33%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 49%, Incheon United 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.09 PPG, Incheon United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.