Pohang Steelers 1-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul meet at Steelyard Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pohang Steelers's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pohang Steelers's home record at Steelyard Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC Seoul (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Seoul's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Seoul arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Seoul half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 49% versus FC Seoul 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 40% | FC Seoul 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.89 xG and FC Seoul 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.863 / defence 1.211 | FC Seoul attack 0.985 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Pohang Steelers games / 33 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 22% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 52%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | FC Seoul 1.92. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 50% | FC Seoul 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 22% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.89 / FC Seoul 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.863 / def 1.211 | FC Seoul attack 0.985 / def 1.107 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Seoul xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul part of?
Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 22% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC Seoul (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (0.98x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
22%
4.48
26%
3.84
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.40
1.51
FC Seoul xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
5%
20.24
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.51 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 12W 10D 15L from 37 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
FC Seoul, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 15L across 37 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.19 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 5W 5D 8L from 18 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Seoul's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.19 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.11 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Seoul have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 4-1 on 29 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
3
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, FC Seoul have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when FC Seoul 3-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 44%, FC Seoul 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pohang Steelers) and 33% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Seoul in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 56% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 33% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Pohang Steelers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Pohang Steelers 1-2 at Steelyard Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.89 xG and FC Seoul 1.51 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against FC Seoul attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 22% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 52%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 40%, FC Seoul 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.24 PPG, FC Seoul 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.